Memory prices are likely to rise by 30% in the fourth quarter (4Q 2025) and possibly by 20% more early next year, on top of 50% price increases experienced year to date, according to Counterpoint Technology Market Research’s latest edition of Memory Solutions for GenAI bi-weekly report.

One of the key issues is legacy LPDDR4 supply tightness brought on by suppliers shifting output to more advanced chips to service AI demand, which is distorting markets. Spot price imbalances are occurring, with DDR5 for servers and PCs trading at around $1.50 per gigabit, while older DDR4 used in consumer electronics fetches $2.10 – higher than that of even advanced HBM3e, which is hovering around $1.70.

Counterpoint forecasts DRAM production increases exceeding 20% in 2026 across all key chipmakers. “Samsung may reallocate its expanding 1C process, SK hynix is pushing production and raising sales targets, CXMT may surprise on the upside and Micron, typically disciplined on ROI, is unlikely to hold back,” said Research Director M.S. Hwang.

The current chip shortage is mostly about legacy tightness, which is affecting low-priced consumer electronics products like budget smartphones using LPDDR4.

“The bigger risk on the horizon is with advanced memory as NVIDIA’s recent pivot to LPDDR means it is a customer on the scale of a major smartphone maker—a seismic shift for the supply chain which can’t easily absorb this scale of demand,” said Hwang.

Traditionally, servers have relied on DDR memory with error correcting code (ECC) for reliability, but NVIDIA is pivoting to LPDDR for lower power consumption and handling error correction at the CPU level rather than relying on DDR5 ECC.

Accordingly, Counterpoint forecasts a 2x increase in DRAM module prices for DDR5 64GB RDIMM across Q1 2025 to the end of 2026 in a highly constrained scenario.

DRAM Price Scenario (DDR5 64GB RDIMM)

Source: Counterpoint Research ‘Memory Solutions for GenAI’ Bi-Weekly, Issue 21

The current shortage is being felt mainly in the lower end of the smartphone market, hitting budget smartphone makers. “But the pain could spread across the broader smartphone and consumer electronics ecosystem,” said Senior Analyst Ivan Lam. “We are talking here about big increases to smartphone BoMs—upwards of 25% in the case of some models—across the key mid-to-high-end segments, eating into margins or affecting growth. It will probably be both.”

All this will be framed by macro risks—from tariffs and geopolitics to employment trends—which add another layer of uncertainty. The industry now faces a volatile mix of constrained capacity and surging prices, which will force painful trade-offs for suppliers and manufacturers alike.